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Business Insider today has a really interesting article about BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Long and his team, who are bucking the trend of Wall Street expectations that iPhone 7 sales will not be that spectacular.
According to Long, the iPhone 7 will in fact be a huge seller for Apple, much more than the modest success predicted on Wall Street.
Long’s theory is based on the fact that by this September, when Apple is expected to launch the iPhone 7, the company will have its biggest ever installed base of current iPhones that are over 2 years old. The following charts indicate how this breaks down in terms of percentage of people who upgrade to the newest iPhone based on the age of their current phone. As you can see, by far the biggest percentage (58%) is “next-gen+1” users whose phones are two years older or more.
And in BMO Capital Markets’ second chart you can see the “big lump” of users who are due to upgrade:
The third chart shows the same data, but with the older phones shown as a percentage of the total:
And it’s not just Long and BMO Capital Markets that have come to this conclusion, as Timothy Arcuri and his team at Cowen & Co. have made statements along the same lines, referring to an iPhone 7 “super-cycle” that will be even bigger than that for the iPhone 6 in 2014.
Source: 'SUPER-CYCLE': The evidence that iPhone 7 is going to be massive
According to Long, the iPhone 7 will in fact be a huge seller for Apple, much more than the modest success predicted on Wall Street.
Long’s theory is based on the fact that by this September, when Apple is expected to launch the iPhone 7, the company will have its biggest ever installed base of current iPhones that are over 2 years old. The following charts indicate how this breaks down in terms of percentage of people who upgrade to the newest iPhone based on the age of their current phone. As you can see, by far the biggest percentage (58%) is “next-gen+1” users whose phones are two years older or more.
And in BMO Capital Markets’ second chart you can see the “big lump” of users who are due to upgrade:
The third chart shows the same data, but with the older phones shown as a percentage of the total:
And it’s not just Long and BMO Capital Markets that have come to this conclusion, as Timothy Arcuri and his team at Cowen & Co. have made statements along the same lines, referring to an iPhone 7 “super-cycle” that will be even bigger than that for the iPhone 6 in 2014.
Source: 'SUPER-CYCLE': The evidence that iPhone 7 is going to be massive
